The China-Russia threat comes into focus
It is far too early to deliver anything like a definitive verdict on Joe Biden’s handling of the Ukraine crisis. But the White House has reason to feel pleased with how things have gone since the president’s disastrous “minor incursion” press conference three weeks ago.
The West is considerably more united in opposition to Vladimir Putin’s aggression than it was in mid-January. Troop movements and armaments for Ukraine have sent a clear enough message to Moscow. Germany, laggards when it comes to confronting Russian bullying, are at least putting on a display of unity with the rest of the West. On Monday at the White House, German chancellor Olaf Scholz stood next to Biden as the president pledged that “if Russia invades… there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2.”
Germany could still do better, of course. And French president Emmanuel Macron may be freestyling with trips to Moscow and overblown claims of promises extracted from the Russian leader. But if Putin gambled on a disunited and weak West allowing him to chip away, consequence-free, at Ukrainian sovereignty, he may have miscalculated.
This may change, of course. If Putin escalates, the depth and sincerity of Western resolve will be tested. And may yet be found wanting.
Meanwhile, a geopolitical event that will be remembered for years to come took place not at a strangely long table in Moscow, or during a routine press conference at the White House, but in Beijing. Against the backdrop of a dystopian Winter Olympics, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping shook hands on a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact for the twenty-first century. The foes of America are also neighbors, and have had their fair share of disagreements in the past. Now they are in lockstep.
In a 5,000-word communique issued on Friday, the two leaders heralded a “new era” in the global order and declared that “friendship between [Russia and China] knows no limits.” From the particular — opposition to further enlargement of NATO and “any forms of independence of Taiwan” — to the general — the denunciation of a “one-size-fits-all template to guide countries in establishing democracy” — the statement amounts to the creation of a new axis of anti-Western autocracy.
Geopolitical reality has changed. For the US, the tradeoffs between a Europe- and Asia-focused defense strategy have grown more complicated. This muddies the waters in US foreign policy debates: some had worried that a Democratic preoccupation with Russia risked distracting from the China threat. But these threats are now connected. If there is a silver lining to the China-Russia pact, perhaps it will be its possible role in the emergence of a new consensus in Washington.
In his first year, Biden’s foreign policy was muddled. “America is back” frequently felt like an empty slogan, while the Afghanistan withdrawal demolished the notion that the new administration had returned competence to the prosecution of defense policy. Recent days have brought the test that will make or break him on the world stage — a rising China with a trollish junior partner in Vladimir Putin — into sharp focus.
Can the US grow and strengthen a Eurasian alliance of its own to counter the China-Russia axis? Can European partners be persuaded to take more responsibility for their continent’s defense? At stake, one senses, is far more even than the legacy of a president.
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Cori Bush sticks to ‘Defund the Police’
When, in 2020, moderate Democrats indulged progressives and cut police budgets in the middle of a crime wave, they soon realized it was bad policy and terrible politics.
Fast-forward to 2022 and many of the cities that reduced funding have since reversed course. You are far less likely to hear a Democrat openly support defund the police (even if they are still happy to align with the Black Lives Matter movement, for whom funding cuts remain a priority).
But there are exceptions. One is Squad member and faith healer Cori Bush. The Missouri congresswoman has made clear that she will not stop saying “defund the police” ahead of the midterms. “I always tell [fellow Democrats], ‘If you all had fixed this before I got here I wouldn’t have to say these things,’” she said in an interview with Axios.
Bush’s own car was recently hit by a stray bullet in St Louis — and the congresswoman spent more than $90,000 on private security for herself in 2021.
Bless his heart
We head to Alabama for a lesson in Southern manners. In a campaign ad, the state’s governor, Kay Ivey, tells voters: “Growing up, my mom and dad told us, ‘If you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all.’”
“Well,” she continues, “here’s what I have to say about Joe Biden.” There follows an awkward silence and then: “Poor Joe, bless his heart.”
Last stand in the mask wars, cont.
The Covid dominoes discussed in yesterday’s DC Diary continue to fall. New York governor Kathy Hochul is the latest Democrat to do away with a mask mandate. In Virginia, Democrats have gone even further. In the state Senate, Democrats voted with Republicans in support of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s provision that allows parents to decide whether or not their children wear a mask to school. The development is especially notable because Youngkin’s day-one mask policy had been presented in the left-liberal media, and by the White House, as the reckless act of an anti-science culture warrior. Now it has the support of Democrats in the state. A further sign that the mask battle is (finally) coming to an end.
What you should be reading today
Bernard-Henri Lévy: Sacrificing the Uighurs to the Olympics
Leon Hadar: Israel and America are drifting apart
Madeline Fry Schultz: Is Euphoria too bleak to be good?
Tom McTague, the Atlantic: Vladimir Putin, modern man
Henry Olsen, Washington Post: Florida Republicans are taking the middle road on abortion. That should surprise no one
Poll watch
President Biden Job Approval
Approve: 40.6 percent
Disapprove: 53.9 percent
Net approval: -13.3 (RCP Average)
Do voters agree with Donald Trump’s proposal that January 6 rioters be pardoned?
Yes, rioters should be pardoned: 20 percent
No, rioters should not be pardoned: 68 percent
No opinion: 12 percent
(Politico/Morning Consult)
