At least for the moment, it looks like Russian president Vladimir Putin is intent on conquering Ukraine, a nation he’s never believed has the right to exist.
While the fog of war always limits accurate real-time military analysis, it seems for now that Russia has committed to annexing at least large sections of Ukraine and is winning the day militarily with ease.
Of course, the media has predictably gone into overdrive, warning of World War Three, gas prices that will stay high for years and perhaps even Putin attacking NATO and nuclear war.
But let’s put away the hysterics for a moment and think about the here and now. Russia’s goal in Ukraine has always been clear and does not involve war on NATO or even conquering Ukraine in its entirety. Putin wants Ukraine to never join NATO or the European Union, period.
Yes, Putin has the means and, I think, the will to try to conquer Ukraine. But my gut tells me the Russian president, while a thug and a murderer, is geopolitically rational. The limits of his aggression — awful though it is — seem to be the dislodging of the current government in Kyiv and taking more of Ukraine’s territory, perhaps linking Transnistria, Crimea and Russia proper. Nonetheless, I still believe Putin will not swallow all of Ukraine.
I could be wrong. Geopolitics and wars of conquest and rationality don’t always come together in the ways we expect. For example, what if Putin’s forces are so dominant on the battlefield that he changes his goal and does try to take over the entire country? Putin would risk not only the possibility of a wider war in Europe that could drag on for months, but the destruction of his own regime.
Consider the following scenario. Putin in the coming days takes over all of Ukraine and installs a puppet government to his liking, ensuring that Ukraine will never join NATO. Oil prices hit $120 a barrel, and while new American sanctions sting hard, China is there with enough financial backing and assistance. Between high oil prices and Beijing, Putin gets away with his aggression mostly unscathed.
He won’t be able to gloat for long. Just as the United States learned in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, modern military muscle does not always win against a motivated, nationalistic population that is willing to die to gain its freedom. The US, NATO nations and others who despise Russia will provide arms, training, finances and intelligence support to Ukrainian insurgents who will do all they can to bleed Moscow for its aggression. Putin’s victory in Ukraine over the long term will become chaos for Russia. Moscow will suffer for years battling insurgents armed with the latest Western weapons that Putin will have to spend billions of dollars a year trying to counteract.
All this will expose the inherent weaknesses in the Russian state. Russia is getting old fast, its population has been in decline for years, its life expectancy is horrible compared to other European nations, with drug and alcohol abuse all running rampant. All of this will come to a head as oil prices fall when American oil producers come back online and start pumping thanks to the financial incentives that come with $100-a-barrel oil.
Putin’s so-called victory in Ukraine will start to become geopolitical quicksand that won’t be easy to escape. It could make our own experiences in Vietnam and more recently in Afghanistan look small by comparison.
My advice to Joe Biden is that, if Putin does try to swallow Ukraine, it seems only fair to help him choke on it.
