Donald Trump is expected to announce that he is running for president again next week on November 14, according to multiple reports and chatter near the Trump Organization. The only question is whether he does it even earlier — listening to allies like Matt Gaetz who think he should announce as soon as tonight to take credit for what Republicans anticipate will be a clear red wave.
This seems like an uncharacteristic mistake on Trump’s part. The announcement, whether it comes this week or next, is premature. It’s unlikely to forestall any significant potential competitors — and might actually serve to embolden some.
The most powerful tool Trump has is the ability to jump in as a former president overwhelmingly popular with Republican voters and instantly clear the field. The tensions over when this decision will come, and the anticipation it breeds, are all aspects that serve Trump and help freeze the donor money that is looking for somewhere else to go.
The uncertainty is a tool, and a useful one — but Trump is apparently of the mind that he needs to employ it as soon as possible after the midterms to achieve maximum benefit. Rather than enter the field relatively late as he did in 2016, he’s now signing up to be a candidate for two years and all that entails.
The potential for organizational dysfunction and messaging challenges will be heightened by the fact that what we all expect to be the new GOP Congress will be doing their own work at the same time. Though Trump takes potshots at House and Senate Republicans constantly, they don’t actually generate the same headlines they once did. But they matter more when he does so as the presumptive nominee of the party.
Last time around, Trump benefited from the donor money being spread around and everyone fighting to be the last “non-Trump” candidate in the race. The amount of money wasted on Super PACs to this end was massive. But this time around, getting in early could turn into Trump being a giant target that the donor money can seek to balance against by unifying behind a single potential alternative.
Trump’s lead balloon of an insult for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, “Ron DeSanctimonious,” went over so poorly with his crowd the other night not because it’s a lame joke but because DeSantis is popular, he’s in office and he’s actively working as governor to do things conservatives love. Trump’s voters like DeSantis too — and they want the two to get along and potentially even run together (well, dream big). Trump’s animosity, expressed through such a weak swat, comes across as if he feels vulnerable to attack from DeSantis, who is mindful that Chris Christie missed his moment and knows he cannot afford to do the same.
There are other legal reasons why Trump might want to get in early — that will be the theory on CNN. But I doubt those are real. This is a choice Trump is making because he considers himself a show people eagerly want back on the air. So while he could easily wait six or eight or even ten months, and jump in like lightning from the heavens with big momentum, his decision to skip ahead could prove costly. Holding his fire would keep people on the edge of their seats. Instead he’s spoiling the movie early, and increasing the chances of a rewrite.
