What to watch for in the governors’ races
Given the razor-thin margins and an array of races that range from the compelling to the indecent (more on that later), the focus during these midterms has been on the Senate. That’s understandable, if not inevitable. But in thirty-six states, voters will also be selecting their next governor. Those races are of great local significance, of course. But they are also part of the national picture. Here are some of the trends to watch.
Blue-state blues
It’s possible that the most eyebrow-raising result come election night is not in a closely watched swing state like Georgia or Pennsylvania, but in deep-blue New York. Few expected Kathy Hochul’s re-election bid to be anything other than a formality, but the latest polls point to a tightening New York gubernatorial race. Lee Zeldin has run a canny campaign and successfully exploited his opponents’ weaknesses on Covid and crime. And while a Hochul defeat would still be a huge shock, the unexpected competitiveness of the race to run New York bodes ill for Democratic incumbents elsewhere. In liberal Oregon, the polls suggest that Christine Drazin could become the first Republican governor in more than thirty years. Nationwide, the fortunes of Democratic gubernatorial incumbents will be a key indicator of the political damage done by Covid restrictions and school closures to those who enforced them.
Democratic rising stars come down to earth
Two of this cycle’s Democratic gubernatorial candidates — Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O’Rourke in Texas — face a reckoning if, as expected, they lose their races. Abrams and O’Rourke have been feted as political superstars in recent years, lavished with Star Trek cameos and Vanity Fair cover shoots. Now they are both set for their second failure to secure state-wide office. Their reputations will surely take a knock, but will Democrats ask deeper questions about why they seem so determined to elevate unproven figures to something approaching sainthood with such speed?
Can DeSantis send a national message?
Donald Trump may have staked a lot on this year’s elections, betting big on primary candidates and doubling down in the general. But unlike the former president, his main 2024 rival is actually on the ballot. Ron DeSantis’s reelection seems all but assured. But the race is a chance for the Florida governor to send a powerful message. He won in a photo finish four years ago. Ever since, the purple state has gotten redder — in no small part thanks to DeSantis. The bigger the margin this time around, the clearer the indicator to Republicans across the country that DeSantis might have what it takes to succeed nationally.
Ticket-splitters endure
A gap has opened up in electoral politics between the assumptions of a bitterly divided, hyperpartisan electorate and the rather messier reality. For evidence of the size of that gap, look to signs of ticket-splitting come November. And there’s reason to believe that this will be a sizable cohort, including in some of the cycle’s most important states: Oz-Shapiro voters in Pennsylvania, Warnock-Kemp voters in Georgia. Elsewhere, such as Kansas — where Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly hopes to be reelected in a red state — gubernatorial candidates are bucking state voting trends by keeping things local and steering clear of divisive issues that dominate the national debate.
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Fetterman’s disastrous night
John Fetterman failed to meet the low expectations he set for himself in last night’s Pennsylvania Senate debate against Mehmet Oz. The Democratic candidate opened by addressing what he called the “elephant in the room” and admitting that he was still recovering from a stroke. “I might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down, but I’m going to keep coming back up,” he said. But the performance that followed was disastrous, and unlikely to do anything other than unnerve Pennsylvania voters concerned about Fetterman’s fitness for office.
Perhaps the clearest indicator that things went badly other than the debate itself was the immediate response of the Fetterman campaign, who issued a statement complaining that the closed captioning software Fetterman used was “filled with errors.” (The broadcaster has denied that there were any such problems.)
The debate is likely to be consequential. As my colleague Ben Domenech explains: “For Republicans and Dr. Oz, the race had been trending in their direction even prior to this debate — but rather than right the ship, the choice by Fetterman’s team to force their candidate out on stage is political malpractice that will in all likelihood doom their effort.”
Meanwhile, political reporters might wonder whether they are doing their jobs properly. Wall-to-wall coverage of perhaps the most important Senate race this cycle, but a failure to convey to voters what was obvious last night.
The Alaska shuffle
Things are getting zany in Alaska, where ranked-choice voting and a fractious Republican coalition are throwing up some strange stories. First, the news that Lisa Murkowski, the Republican Senate incumbent, and Mary Peltola, the Democratic incumbent in the House, have crossed party lines to endorse one another.
Murkowski must fend off a challenge from the Trump-approved Kelly Tshibaka. The rift between Murkowski and an unruly state Republican Party grew wider Monday when the Alaska GOP voted to censure Mitch McConnell for supporting Murkowski. In other words, Republicans punishing Republican leadership for endorsing the Republican incumbent, who will be voting Democrat on Election Day. A perfectly normal state doing perfectly normal things.
What you should be reading today
Chadwick Moore: Where in the world is Greta Thunberg?
Stephen L. Miller: Hillary is the queen of election denial
Jason Morgan: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coming
Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg: How Cold War II could turn into World War III
Jack Shafer, Politico: The awesome futility of interviewing Donald Trump
Natalie Jackson, National Journal: Why it matters if the polls miss again
Poll watch
President Biden job approval
Approve: 42.4 percent
Disapprove: 54.1 percent
Net approval: -11.7 (RCP average)
North Carolina Senate race
Ted Budd (R): 49 percent
Cheri Beasley (D): 45 percent (Marist)
