Mr. Biden goes to Riyadh

Mr. Biden goes to Riyadh
Tomorrow will see Joe Biden complete the most clear-cut foreign policy U-turn of his presidency when he touches down in Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

As a candidate, Biden had pledged to make a “pariah” out of the Saudi regime. After taking office, he declassified the intelligence report on the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. But war in Ukraine and soaring global energy prices have forced the president to put realpolitik ahead of posturing.

A Saudi press release hyping the talks between Biden and the petro-state’s de facto ruler contained…

Mr. Biden goes to Riyadh

Tomorrow will see Joe Biden complete the most clear-cut foreign policy U-turn of his presidency when he touches down in Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

As a candidate, Biden had pledged to make a “pariah” out of the Saudi regime. After taking office, he declassified the intelligence report on the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. But war in Ukraine and soaring global energy prices have forced the president to put realpolitik ahead of posturing.

A Saudi press release hyping the talks between Biden and the petro-state’s de facto ruler contained a long list of areas of discussion — “space, renewable energy, cybersecurity, climate and environmental initiatives, food and energy security, and expanding trade and commercial ties” — but really Biden will arrive in Riyadh with a two-item wishlist. First, the president is desperate for the Saudis to pump more oil and ease prices. Second, he wants buy-in for a price cap on Russian crude oil.

Even as he prepares to meet MbS, Biden appears very uncomfortable about the change in approach. As recently as last month, he signaled that he might not meet the crown prince: “It’s in Saudi Arabia, but it’s not about Saudi Arabia,” he said. “And so there’s no commitment that is being made or — I’m not even sure; I guess I will see the king and the crown prince, but that’s — that’s not the meeting I’m going to. They’ll be part of a much larger meeting.” In recent weeks, he has been sheepish about his plans and, according to the Washington Post, has been expressing ongoing discomfort about the trip to aides.

This awkwardness and embarrassment is understandable given the gruesomeness of the Saudi regime, but only raises the stakes of the trip: to perform such an excruciating about-turn and then come home empty-handed would be a thoroughgoing diplomatic failure for the president. And the on-the-ground, in-front-of-the-cameras conduct of Biden in a such a fraught encounter is also an important test for a president desperate to prove to his party, and the country, that he is up to the job.

As Paul Wood writes, “the era of posturing on Saudi Arabia is over.” That is more a consequence of the logic of events than it is any decision of the president. Biden has tacitly acknowledged the need to deal with the world as it is, not as he would like it to be. Now he needs to demonstrate he can do so successfully.

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All shook up

Ahead of Biden’s swing through the Middle East, the White House announced a new handshake policy. In light of surging Covid cases in the United States and Israel, the president would be sticking to fist bumps and not handshakes. The new protocol didn’t last long. After landing in Israel, the president bumped fists with Israeli prime minister Yair Lapid and a few other officials who met him at Ben Gurion Airport. But when he came across former prime minister Bibi Netanyahu, the two old-school pols were all backslaps and handshakes. And after that, the new rules went out the window.

Covid, it seems, is being used as a convenient excuse for Biden to avoid a handshake with MbS. Expect the pandemic protocols to be better enforced when the president lands in Riyadh.

Trump mulls early 2024 announcement

Yesterday, Biden was asked by an Israeli journalist whether he thought he would face Trump in 2024. “I’m not predicting it,” he said, “But I would not be disappointed.” The quip comes as the Washington Post reports that, according to two Trump advisors, the former president is planning to bring forward his announcement of a 2024 bid to before the midterms, eyeing a date as early as some time in September. “70-30 he announces before the midterms,” one Trump whisperer told the paper.