He’s running
Politics is a game of unwritten rules. In announcing his bid for a return to the White House at Mar-a-Lago last night, Donald Trump is betting that those rules haven’t changed quite as much as it has seemed in the days since the midterms.
By pledging to “make America great and glorious again,” Trump is making a two-part and paradoxical gamble.
First, Trump is banking on one of the oldest rules in the book: the power of incumbency. Despite what you might read in QAnon chatrooms, Trump is not the sitting president. But his unusual position of ex-president running for election means he is running on his track record. Evidently he and his team think that is their best bet. In his speech last night, Trump focused on his achievements in office and drew as sharp a contrast as possible between America pre- and post-2020.
Even accounting for characteristic exaggeration, 2024 rivals will surely have gulped as he listed those accomplishments. It is one thing to be a popular governor. It is another to have proved it on the national stage. The road to the White House is littered with candidates who looked ready to make that leap only to fall flat on their faces.
Second, Trump is betting that his unique gravity-defying appeal, at least among a plurality of Republicans, endures. There has been no shortage of occasions over the last seven years when Trump has tripped up and his political obituaries have been written. But from the Access Hollywood tape to January 6, the relationship between Trump and his party has endured every kind of scandal and misstep. And so the best-case for bullishness on Trump in the 2024 primary is the argument that this month’s midterms flop will be added to a long list of missed chances for a Trump-GOP divorce. It is also to point out that Trump has charisma, outsider appeal and an awareness of the blind spots of the political class that gives him a special connection to the voters.
As for the launch itself, it was a reasonably low-key affair. A mostly well-behaved Trump characterized his own launch as a “very elegant night,” by which he means it was not a vituperative airing of his grievances. But nothing about the evening could eclipse the basic truth about the timing of his launch: declaring this early is a sign of weakness, not strength.
The crowd was mostly the Mar-a-Lago faithful and was notably light on Republican big beasts. Also missing: Trump’s daughter Ivanka. In a statement yesterday she said, “I love my father very much. This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics.”
Trump’s announcement was clarifying in that it was a reminder of both his appeal and his limitations. The former president is clearly a major contender but far from a shoo-in. On 2024 and much else, the Republican Party has a long and bruising journey ahead.
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Will Kemp save Walker?
Herschel Walker’s Senate runoff chances will receive a boost on Saturday, when Georgia governor Brian Kemp will stump with the football star-turned-politician in the Atlanta suburbs. Kemp, who is high on Trump’s enemies list, kept Walker at arm’s length during his re-election campaign and secured a comfortable eight-point win over Stacey Abrams. The more important gap, though, was the one between Kemp’s vote share and Walker’s. The four-point difference made clear that the Senate candidate was all but doomed in the December runoff without the help of the governor.
Saturday’s Cobb County rally will be the first major event featuring both Kemp and Warnock. And it comes days after Mitch McConnell persuaded Kemp to lend Walker a get out the vote operation that has proved so successful. The Georgia runoff promises to be a low-key affair compared to the double-header two years ago with which the Democrats secured control of the Senate. This time, the best case scenario for Republicans is to keep the number of Democratic senators to fifty. But McConnell et al. will still be desperate for a win. Defeat in Georgia would mean Joe Biden added to his Senate tally during his first term — clear evidence of gross political misconduct on his opponents’ part.
The FBI sounds the alarm on TikTok
During Congressional testimony yesterday, FBI director Christopher Wray said “we do have national security concerns… about TikTok. They include the possibility that the Chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users, or control the recommendation algorithm which could be used for influence operations… or to control software on millions of devices… As to what is actually happening and actually being done, that’s probably something that would be better addressed in a closed and classified setting… we share your concerns.” An ominous assessment, and one that will bolster growing calls to ban the Chinese-owned platform.
What you should be reading today
Kara Kennedy: Why Murdoch dumped Trump
Amber Athey: Trump is in
Paul du Quenoy: Trump’s announcement lights up Palm Beach
Arthur C. Brooks, the Atlantic: America is pursuing happiness in all the wrong places
Lee Siegel, City Journal: ‘Who’s going to clear it up?’
National Review: No
Poll watch
President Biden job approval
Approve: 41.9 percent
Disapprove: 54.7 percent
Net approval: -12.8 (RCP Average)
Americans’ views on the legalization of same-sex marriage
Very good: 36 percent
Somewhat good: 25 percent
Somewhat bad: 18 percent
Very bad: 19 percent (Pew)
