Elizabeth Warren’s magical thinking

Elizabeth Warren’s magical thinking
In an article for the New York Times, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren claims to have the answers to her party’s woes.

There are good reasons to be suspicious of Warren’s plan. Not least Warren’s own political performance in recent years. Despite plenty of very flattering media coverage, she lost every primary or caucus she took part in during the Democratic presidential primary. She somehow managed to finish third in her home state of Massachusetts.

But leaving Warren’s track record to one side, the biggest tell in her plan to save the Democrats is the…

Elizabeth Warren’s magical thinking

In an article for the New York Times, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren claims to have the answers to her party’s woes.

There are good reasons to be suspicious of Warren’s plan. Not least Warren’s own political performance in recent years. Despite plenty of very flattering media coverage, she lost every primary or caucus she took part in during the Democratic presidential primary. She somehow managed to finish third in her home state of Massachusetts.

But leaving Warren’s track record to one side, the biggest tell in her plan to save the Democrats is the absence of any kind of trade offs and the failure to grapple with any kind of inconvenient truths or uncomfortable facts. Warren’s preferred policies just so happen to also be the recipe for electoral success. What a happy coincidence!

So what is Warren’s solution? Deliver on an ambitious progressive agenda — spend big to fight climate change, tackle corporate greed, universal pre-K, etc.

Meanwhile, the idea that a Democratic Party that calls mothers “birthing people” and insists on the descriptor “Latinx” has overreached on cultural issues is dismissed out of hand. “Republicans want to frame the upcoming elections to be about ‘wokeness,’ cancel culture and the ‘militant left wing,’” writes Warren. “Standing up for the inherent dignity of everyone is a core American value, and Democrats are proud to do that every day.”

And if there aren’t the votes for a bold substantive agenda in the Senate? “Use every tool of the presidency to deliver for working people.”

The big midterm-saving thing that Warren wants the president to do with the stroke of a pen is *drumroll* student loan debt cancellation. Here’s where the mask slips. By prioritizing college graduates while claiming to help “working people,” Warren reveals not only why her plan for success in November would really be a recipe for disaster, but also the deep confusion at the heart of what, and whom, the Democrats are for. Student debt cancellation is a regressive policy: it distributes money from the poor to the rich. A 2021 study by economists at the University of Chicago and the University of Pennsylvania found that debt cancellation would benefit the top decile of earners as much as the bottom three deciles combined.

Beyond a few mentions of greedy execs raising prices, there isn’t really a discussion of inflation in Warren’s recipe for electoral survival. Any discussion of the problems facing “working people” in America must start and finish with a basic but important fact: inflation-adjusted wages are falling faster than they have for forty years. Acknowledgement of that fact, and a serious-minded effort to do something about it, should be the beginning, middle and end of any suggestion of what economic policies might save the Democrats between now and November. But for much of the party, Warren included, the more important question is still: “How much more money can we spend?”

As a way to avoid “wipeout,” Warren’s plan is worse than useless. But as a demonstration of the magical thinking that got the Democrats into trouble, it is hard to beat.

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The White House receives a backhanded Covid gift

The decision by a Florida judge to suspend the federal mask mandate yesterday triggered plenty of overblown reactions. This was *gasp* a Trump appointee, confirmed during *gasp* the lame-duck part of his presidency and who *gasp* clerked for Clarence Thomas. In the last twenty-four hours or so, major transportation companies affected — from American Airlines to Uber — have announced that masking will be optional from here on in.

This may have appalled a very online crowd of Covid warriors, but away from that clique, I suspect the overwhelming majority, thoroughly fed up with pandemic rules, will be relieved. Might that wave of relief extend to the White House? Jen Psaki called the ruling “disappointing” and added that: “We’d recommend you wear masks on the airplane.”

But the administration may privately welcome the decision as an off-ramp from one of the more contentious remaining pandemic rules. Biden and his team are eager to move on from Covid. And the ruling offers them an opportunity to argue that the decision is out of their hands, minimizing the backlash from Covid hardliners that might follow a decision not to extend the mandate further.

And if the administration really wants to fight to keep masks on planes and trains, the decision makes this much harder for them politically. A high-profile masking row playing out while Washington Democrats go about their business mask-free is not something with much upside for Biden.

He’s running?

Joe Biden has told Barack Obama that he plans to run in 2024, according to reporting by the Hill. Biden would be eighty-two at the start of his second term. One of the Hill’s sources said: “I believe he thinks he’s the only one who can beat Trump. I don’t think he thinks there’s anyone in the Democratic party who can beat Trump and that’s the biggest factor.” What explains the comments — and the leak? Joe boasting to his old frenemy Barack? Or a leader who senses his party’s support may be slipping attempting to fend off any challenges before they get a chance to gather momentum?