Can Liz Cheney buy her way to victory?

Plus: what the White House has riding on Macron vs. Le Pen

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Liz Cheney (Getty)
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The White House has a lot riding on Macron versus Le Pen
In recent weeks, a Marine Le Pen surge turned the French presidential election from a procession for Emmanuel Macron to something a lot less straightforward. The election has reportedly been the subject of much nervous White House attention.

It’s not hard to understand why. A Le Pen win would be both a major big-picture blow for Biden’s geopolitical ambitions and would have a more immediately destabilizing effect on the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would also strike at the heart of the…

The White House has a lot riding on Macron versus Le Pen

In recent weeks, a Marine Le Pen surge turned the French presidential election from a procession for Emmanuel Macron to something a lot less straightforward. The election has reportedly been the subject of much nervous White House attention.

It’s not hard to understand why. A Le Pen win would be both a major big-picture blow for Biden’s geopolitical ambitions and would have a more immediately destabilizing effect on the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It would also strike at the heart of the European project. In fact, even though Le Pen’s Euroskepticism does not extend to supporting France’s departure from the European Union, a Le Pen presidency would arguably do more damage to the EU’s future than Brexit.

In a interview with Kapil Komireddi for our April cover story, Le Pen outlined the more moderate brand of populism with which she has sought to eschew her far-right pedigree — and explained the admiration for Vladimir Putin, someone she said “defends the interests of Russia,” that makes her such an eyebrow-raising possible occupant of the Élysée Palace. She expressed a view of US-French relations that would send a shiver down Biden’s advisors’ spines. As Kapil writes:

Le Pen does not exude the same warmth for the current American leadership. She is coldly realistic in her assessment of relations with Washington. “I have a lot of friendship for the American people,” she says, but not so much for their leaders. When “they use the extraterritoriality of American law” to harry other states, “they go too far.” France must belong in neither camp, Le Pen believes, and should guard its interests by maintaining “relations that are at a respectful equidistance” with both Moscow and Washington.

The White House has reason to feel a little less nervous after yesterday’s first round of voting, which has set up a Macron-Le Pen second-round showdown (Le Pen’s third second-round appearance). With 97 percent of the votes counted, the centrist incumbent scored a 27.6 percent vote share to Le Pen’s 23.4 percent. The far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon came third with 22 percent.

The expectation may be that, with the majority of the defeated party leaders suggesting their voters back Macron, he wins a second term. But the White House won’t breathe too deep a sigh of relief until the second-round votes are counted in two weeks. One run-off poll for French broadcaster TF1 published last night suggested that there were just two points in it, with Macron on 51 percent and Le Pen on 49 percent. Perhaps Macron will be the first French president since Jacques Chirac in 2002 to be re-elected. But he is not likely to get the 66 percent share of the vote he won with in 2017. And, even if he triumphs, the most ambitious and important politician in Europe will find himself ruling over a deeply divided country — something his counterpart in Washington knows a thing or two about.

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Trump backs Dr. Oz

“This is all about winning elections,” said Donald Trump in a statement announcing his endorsement of Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate Primary Saturday. The former president’s intervention in one of the most important and closely watched primaries ahead of one of the most important and closely watched Senate races is an aggressive move.

A recent Emerson poll showed Oz trailing Dave McCormick, the former Bridgewater CEO, by six points. Trump, therefore, has a high hurdle to clear — or for Oz to clear — if he wants the Pennsylvania race to be a demonstration of his status as Republican party kingmaker.

Needless to say, both Oz and McCormick have been courting Trump in recent weeks. Reading between the lines of Trump’s statement, perhaps the decision was ultimately down to the fact that he sees more of himself in the celebrity TV doctor than in the soldier-turned-hedgie. “I have known Dr. Oz for many years, as have many others, even if only through his very successful television show,” said Trump. “He has lived with us through the screen and has always been popular, respected, and smart.”

Will Liz Cheney’s cash count for anything?

Politico’s Playbook brings news of gargantuan sums raised by Liz Cheney. The Wyoming Republican is stuck in a tough primary fight after she split with Trump and was booted from her House leadership job for doing so and raised a whopping $2.94 million in the first quarter of 2022, meaning she has more than $6 million on hand. But how much of a difference will all that cash make? Cheney’s status as persona non grata among the Trump faithful means she has an uphill struggle ahead of her. As does the fact that her main opponent, Harriet Hageman, has the backing of both Donald Trump and Peter Thiel. While Trump is the right’s most important politician, Thiel is arguably its most important donor these days. And so the latest fundraising figures confirm the Wyoming race as a major showdown between two rival establishments.

What you should be reading today

Bill Zeiser: Elon Musk is the Darth Vader of Twitter
Paul Wood: Europe’s last dictator
Peter W. Wood: Finding the religious right in remote Wisconsin
Lahav Harkov, Common Sense: Ukraine learns the Israel lesson
Samantha Hedges, City Journal: The telos of education
Michael C. Bender, Wall Street Journal: School reopening mess drives parents toward GOP

Poll watch

President Biden Job Approval
Approve: 41.3 percent
Disapprove: 53.8 percent
Net approval: -12.5 (RCP Average)

How concerned are voters about crime and violence in the US?
A great deal: 53 percent
A fair amount: 27 percent (Gallup)

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